BITCOIN HALVING - PRICE PREDICTION

Bitcoin is having its good time in 2023, continuously creating new high. Heading towards the 4th halving in 2024, people start to raise a question "Which price Bitcoin would reach?"

Stay with this newsletter and I would make my own predictions.

The 4th Halving of Bitcoin

Block halving events happen every 210,000 blocks on Bitcoin blockchain. Bitcoin’s initial block reward was 50 BTC. The current block reward is 6.25 BTC, the next block reward will be 3.125 BTC. The halving is periodical and is programmed into Bitcoin’s source code.

The event block height shall be 840,000. And, currently, we are on the block height 816,510, which means the ETA halving date shall be around the first week of Apr 2024.

Historical review

1st halving

In the first halving, the halving date was Nov 28, 2012, the price of $BTC was $12.3.

6 months before the halving date, around May 2012, the price was $5.

$BTC skyrocketed and reached the 2013 bull market high at $1170 after one year, equaling 95x.

2nd halving

In the 2nd halving, the halving date was Jul 9, 2016, the price of $BTC was $680.

6 months before the halving date, around Jan 2016, the price was $467.

$BTC grew exponentially and reached the 2017 bull market high at $19400 after one year and five months, equaling 28.5x.

The performance in this cycle was one third of the previous one (3.33x larger).

3rd halving

In the 3rd halving, the halving date was May 11, 2020, the price of $BTC was $8590.

6 months before the halving date, around Dec 2019, the price was $7200.

$BTC witnessed such a growth and reached the 2021 bull market high at $67450 after one year and six months, equaling 7.85x.

The performance in this cycle was, again, one third of the previous one (3x larger).

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Price Prediction for the 4th halving

As you can see from the above statistics, Bitcoin price tends to stay the same 6 months before the halving date. I means the market could go any where in that 6-month-period, but still ends up with the same level as it was 6 months before the halving date.

The gives me the speculation of Bitcoin price in Apr 2024 shall be $34000, the same level as it was in October 2023.

The absolute price performance of Bitcoin from the halving date to its peak follows the same pattern in 3 halving, which is the previous tends to triple the next.

We got a 7.85x in the 3rd halving, which gives us the speculation of 2.61x in the 4th halving, giving us the price of $BTC shall be around $90000 (2.61x the price of Bitcoin in Oct 2023, $34000)

About the amount of time for BTC to reach $90000, we already saw Bitcoin reaching its top after one and a half year in the 2nd, and the 3rd halving. Given that, we speculate $BTC would reach its top around Oct 2025. 

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